发表于:2002-07-12 13:40:00
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If Your Toaster Had a Brain
Echelon pushes chips for everything from trains to beer taps.
By Art Kleiner
Back in 1983, when A. C. (Mike) Markkula was Apple"s chairman, he and Steve Jobs recruited John Sculley to head the company. Markkula volunteered to educate the new chief executive about the industry, and drew a chart showing how every time the price of computers dropped 10 percent, sales multiplied tenfold.
Personal computer prices were approaching $1,000, and 10 times as many personal computers were selling as when workstations had cost $10,000. "That is interesting," Sculley said. "But what happens when they hit $10?"
Markkula said he didnot know. "There will probably be some clever invention that will make somebody a lot of money."
Today, Markkula is trying to make his own prophecy come true, through a new company called Echelon. Based in Palo Alto, Calif., Echelon makes what it calls "neuron chips" - actually board-like modules about the size of index cards, comprised of three microprocessors each. Each board is one small component of giant computers that will, should Markkula"s vision turn real, surround us someday.
"If you put 1,000 intelligent, distributed nodes inside a building, and you add up all their computing power and memory," Markkula said, "you end up living inside the equivalent of a very powerful central computer. But it would be impossible for a single computer to do as many things at once as this network could do."
Echelon actually represents the third stage in Markkula"s career. A dapper man in his 50s who slightly resembles Jimmy Carter, he became a millionaire marketing chips for Fairchild and Intel in the 1970s. After retiring in his mid-30s, he was known in Silicon Valley as "the third Steve," the man who bankrolled Jobs and Steve Wozniak to help found Apple (and who, among other things, persuaded Wozniak that floppy disks were worth using).
In the mid-1980s, while trying to wire his house for a "smart" lighting and entertainment system, Markkula remembered his remark to Sculley about the market-reach of $10 computers. Commanding devices around the home had been a longstanding dream, but the results always turned out half-baked and cumbersome. A digital machine couldnot easily manipulate the analog knob of a toaster or TV.
But if you attached a $10 digital controller to that appliance, Markkula reasoned, and made it as programmable and customizable as a personal computer, the difficulties might evaporate - especially if the chips could cue each other over power lines, radio waves, telephone wire, or infrared beams. He called the chips "neurons" - not after neural networks, which they vaguely resemble, but after the independently active, inter-related neurons of the human brain.
This year, products containing the chips are just beginning to appear commercially. Their implications go far beyond merely automating homes. Echelon"s tools, in fact, may never automate many toasters, but they could reshape industrial society.
"Among the makers of microcontrollers, Echelon has the broadest potential influence," said David Mason, who follows the future of information technology at Northeast Consulting Resources in Boston. "They have a completely organized view of their chips as not just an isolated device, but a brand name for an idea of fitting them together. A house is just one example. People might happily buy into one use for the chips, and that will be a Trojan Horse for the whole Echelon system."
A demonstration of the neuron-chip system begins, in fact, with Trojan Horse-like simplicity. You twirl an ordinary dimmer switch, and a light bulb, mounted nearby on the same panel, brightens and dims. Then you reach beneath the dimmer switch and tap a small button. Now, when you turn the dial, two lamps brighten and dim. With more taps, you add another switch to the circuit; now both switches adjust the same lamp"s brightness. Then you rip the