Costs And Benefits Of An Immigration Overhaul

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle agree that immigration overhaul is overdue. But there is no consensus on the economic effects of legalizing millions of people who have been working in the U.S. for years either with false papers or off the books.

美国民主共和两党的国会议员都承认，对移民制度进行重大改革已经拖了太长时间。但如果给数百万非法移民合法身份，经济上会受到怎样的影响？两党议员在此问题上还没有达成共识。多年来，这些非法移民或是利用假证件，或是逃过正式监管而在美国工作。

About 11 million of the U.S.‘s 40.4 million immigrants are here illegally. Mainly young and motivated to migrate for work, the vast majority of them participate in the U.S. labor market.

在美国4,040万移民中，大约有1,100万人是非法移民。其中主要以年轻的、希望移民到美国工作的人为主。绝大多数人都成为美国劳动力市场的一份子。

If they are legalized, ‘there will be benefits and costs,‘ said Pia Orrenius, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

达拉斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)高级经济学家奥雷纽斯(Pia Orrenius)说，如果让这些非法移民获得合法身份，这既会带来收益，也会带来成本。

Most economists, demographers and other experts who have studied the potential impact of a legalization program don‘t expect it to affect the economic recovery.

对非法移民合法化项目进行研究的大多数经济学家、人口学家和其他专家预计，该计划不会影响美国经济复苏。

They agree that it would benefit individual immigrants and their families because their work conditions would improve. The immigrants would become more likely to invest in education for themselves and their children because they would feel settled. Greater stability promotes integration and assimilation, both of which help the country‘s economy.

这些专家一致认为，非法移民获得合法身份将有利于移民个人和他们的家庭，因为他们的工作条件将得到改善。移民因此更有可能投资于自身及其子女的教育，因为他们将有归属感。社会稳定程度的提高将促进融合和同化，这均有助于美国经济。

However, it is hard to assess the cost to the federal government and states of providing public services to legalized residents who eventually become eligible for them.

然而，对联邦政府和各州来说，它们需要向成为合法居民的非法移民提供公共服务，因此产生的成本难以估计。这些非法移民在成为合法居民之后将有资格享受公共服务。

Beneficiaries of legalization who are blue-collar workers could end up receiving more government benefits than they pay in taxes, ‘just like poor, low-skilled natives,‘ says Ms. Orrenius, who last year co-wrote a paper on the economic consequences of legalization. Initially, states would incur most of the costs because they offer many public services, she said.

在那些身份合法化项目的受益者中，蓝领工人最终获得的政府福利可能高于他们缴纳的税赋。奥雷纽斯说，这就像那些贫穷的、技能水平较低的美国人一样。奥雷纽斯去年和他人合写了一篇有关非法移民身份合法后可能给经济带来影响的论文。她说，最初，各州政府将承担大部分成本，因为它们提供很多公共服务。